A Manager Looks at Luck
A Manager Looks at Luck
Managers can easily make excuses for alleged underperformance. Inadequate resourcing, a lack of support from above, unrealistic expectations, and inadequate staff capabilities are some of the explanations most often advanced. But can achievement sometimes be beyond the control of managers? Can failures be down to bad luck? Many managers would give a resounding yes to the question, even the most excuse-averse of them.
Theorists about luck tend to fall into two schools of thought: the prevailist and the opportunist. Prevailists believe that success or failure is frequently due to good or bad luck. They think luck often prevails over talent and effort, and is blind to all levels of self-belief. Opportunists hold that what people regard as good luck is actually following through on opportunities that arise. In their view it depends on how people regard their own lives and how much they retain a positivity of attitude. It is fair to say that prevailist theories have gained much the greater acceptance, overwhelming so amongst experienced managers.
Bad luck in a career can be thought of as three main types: personal; decisional; and occupational. Personal bad luck can include the social and economic circumstances into which one is born. Nationality, gender and ethnicity can all amplify or diminish a person’s potential. Decisional bad luck occurs when a manager’s workplace decisions turn out to have unpredicted negative consequences. Even when made properly and in good faith, decisions can be undermined by events beyond a manager’s control, sometimes with major negative consequences. Occupational bad luck occurs when factors outside a manager’s control preclude success. They could include: the values and personality of the boss; the organisational culture; the nature of objectives and targets; the behaviour of peers; and the inherent capabilities of staff.
So how can the extent of occupational bad luck be assessed so as to guard against excuse fall-back? Try the Real-World Management 7-point Occupational Luck instrument. Rate your current occupational luck against the following. Give each factor a rating of between 1 and 5. A 5 rating means yes, completely; 1 means completely not.
- The nature of your work is inherently interesting to you
- All that is being asked of you is achievable
- The work environment has little or no favouritism
- You have a good working relationship with your line manager
- You find your work colleagues on the whole to be good to work with
- The staff working for you have inherent capabilities appropriate for what is asked of them
- The pace of change does not impose high levels of stress on you.
Score your occupational luck like this:
30 -35 plenty of luck
25 -30 reasonable amount of luck
15 -25 deficient in luck
0 – 15 seriously deficient in luck
So what can be done? To be clear: bad luck can override everything and be beyond your control. But luck can be managed so to minimise the negative impacts and accentuate the positive. Here is a luck management scheme:
1. Recognise that luck exists and develop a real-world mental model of it. Visualise your future career and the almost certain occurrence of good and bad luck episodes. See yourself making the most of the good and being resilient through the bad
2. Increase the likelihood of having good luck by being proactive in your work. Show initiative. Seek a positive differentiation from others
3. Further increase the likelihood by developing personal work networks through professional acquaintanceship
4. Try not to let your thoughts be dominated by personal bad luck. Difficult as it may be, try to use any such factors as motivators
5. Recognise that decisional bad luck happens. Avoid self-blame. Seek to understand why your decisions had negative consequences. Don’t let them be a route to timidity
6. Assess your occupational luck carefully. Consider the likelihood of bad luck changing. In bad luck situations, do not shy away from considering a role or job change
7. Make the most of good luck by using it as a strong motivator. Put in a special effort. Be modest about your resulting achievements but don’t slip into imposter syndrome. Ignore detractors.
Look luck in the face!